Make no mistake. General George Washington was, quite literally, a loser.

By the end of 1776, anybody with a brain would have concluded that the Continental Congress had chosen the wrong guy. Consider this: in July of that year, Washington allowed the British to land on Staten Island, completely unopposed, and set up their base of operations. A month later, he paid for his mistake when the British crossed over to Long Island and thoroughly routed the Americans in one of the largest battles of the war. After a mad scramble of a retreat, the Americans barely escaped to Manhattan. In September, the British crossed the East River and stormed ashore; Washington had to abandon all but the northwest corner of the island, at a place that came to be known as Fort Washington. After holding this position for two months, the Americans were overwhelmed in November. The fall of Fort Washington was a disaster. Valuable material was lost, 3000 soldiers were captured (most later died in captivity), and Washington fled across the Hudson River. Soon after, the British captured Fort Lee on the New Jersey side of the river, completing their control of New York City, which they would hold for the duration of the war.

Many folks concluded that Washington should go. One of Washington’s own staff, Adjutant General Joseph Reed, secretly wrote to Major General Charles Lee that he thought Lee should replace Washington, because “an indecisive mind is one of the greatest misfortunes that can befall an army.” Looking at what happened next, it’s hard to argue with him. Washington retreated south across New Jersey, chased by an elite force under General Charles Cornwallis. On November 28, the Americans were forced to abandon Newark. On November 30, the Americans barely made it across the Raritan River at Brunswick. In December, Washington was scrambling towards Princeton with Cornwallis snapping at his heels. After failing to make a stand at Princeton, Washington was once again forced to retreat, and by December 8, he and his army had passed through Trenton, crossed the Delaware River, and into Pennsylvania.

It was obvious that the end was near. Washington’s forces had dwindled from 20,000 soldiers to less than 6,000, and most of these were militiamen whose terms would run out at year’s end; come January, his army would no longer exist. On December 12, the Continental Congress fled Philadelphia for Baltimore. The British, meanwhile, knew that time was on their side. Cornwallis’ forces settled into cozy winter quarters all along the Delaware, from Princeton to Trenton to Bordentown to Burlington. They could just wait until the coming of Spring, cross into Pennsylvania, complete their stranglehold of the colonies and end the war.

December 19, 1776. In Philadelphia, Thomas Paine publishes a short pamphlet, “The American Crisis,” which captures the desperation of the moment. “These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

At this point, any form of triumph was impossible to conceive. Washington had failed; the Revolution was apparently over…