4.6.07 Presidential Prognostication
It will be Edwards versus Huckabee 500 days from now. Forget political correctness, it’s statistical.
First, the problems with the Democrats. Hillary Rodham Clinton is female. Which means it is statistically impossible for her to be president. Barack Obama is half black, which immediately cuts his chances to 50%. Furthermore, if elected, he would be the fourth-youngest president. Most troubling, both his father AND step-father are Muslim. Game over. Al Gore is a big star, probably too big. With a body mass index well over 30, he’d be the largest president since Taft. Won’t happen without a diet.
Among Republicans, Mitt Romney cannot win, he’s Mormon. Newt Gingrich is out; no amphibian has ever been elected chief executive. Rudy Giuliani has all sorts of problems: forget about the divorces and liberal views, he is Italian, Catholic and, worst of all, from New York City. John McCain is perfect. Episcopal (#1 Statistically), Male (#1), White (#1) with the added bonus of being the war-hero son and grandson of admirals. But, if elected, he would be the oldest president ever, and the fourth shortest. Fred Thompson has a celebrity “Q-score” through the roof. He’s a law and order candidate AND plays one on TV. At 6 foot 6 he’d be our tallest president (good) but at age 66 he’d be our third oldest (bad). Giuliani, McCain and Thompson are also bald, a notorious candidate-killer. Tommy Thompson and George Pataki are Catholics.
Which leaves Mike Huckabee for the Republicans. A 52-year old white male Baptist. Nice. From Bill Clinton’s hometown of Hope, Arkansas, which works oddly in his favor with Democrats but against him with Republicans.
He’ll be up against John Edwards for the Democrats. He is White (#1), Male (#1), Methodist (#3), will be 55 years old (#1), 5’ 11” (#2) with added bonuses for high hair and low BMI. And Edwards will win in a landslide: “President Huckabee” would be, statistically speaking, the #1 silliest moniker in history.