9.12.14 Weather Wizards
All we wanted to do was get a weather prediction for the coming winter.
And we were suddenly caught in the vortex between the “Farmer’s Almanac,” which released its 2015 version on August 25, and the “Old Farmer’s Almanac,” which just released its 2015 version this week.
First of all, how can the OLD one be published 3 weeks later than the other one? I mean, really…
Second, when news organizations post the predictions made by these two almanacs, they often use the shorthand “Farmer’s Almanac” or even just “Almanac” when referring to either publication, creating a mighty meteorological mess. For example, yesterday the Syracuse Post-Standard, covering the publication of the OLD Farmer’s Almanac, correctly featured that publication’s cover, but referenced the predictions from the Farmer’s Almanac, and then had to issue a correction that they had included the wrong visual, even though that visual was technically correct but the content was technically wrong.
(If you can’t follow that previous paragraph, well then, there’s the problem.)
And so here’s a little summary to help you tell the two publications apart. The first “Farmer’s Almanac” began back in 1792. In the 1800’s, several rival imitation Almanacs came on the market, so in 1848, it changed its name to “Old Farmer’s Almanac” to protect its legacy. Then, just 10 years later, the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” gained national prominence when a young lawyer named Abe Lincoln used a copy to discredit an eyewitness who claimed he’d seen a murder by moonlight, when it fact the Old Farmer’s Almanac showed there was no moon in the sky on that date. The publication now known as just “Farmer’s Almanac” is a relative upstart. It began in Morristown, NJ, in 1818. It offered weather predictions, but also had a broader offering which included advice on when to plant, hunt and fish, some tasty recipes, and simple at-home cures for common ailments.
Today it can be hard to tell the two apart. The similarity extends to their meteorological credentials which are…well…a bunch of hocus-pocus and hoo-ha. The Old Farmer’s Almanac uses astrology and other folk craft to create a formula so valuable it has to be locked away…in a tin box in the company office. And the Farmer’s Almanac relies on a recipe known only to Caleb Weatherbee, a man so wise, so all-seeing, he has to be protected by an alias.
OK, so back to the coming winter. And thankfully, the two publications are consistent – at least for 2015 – in their prediction. Both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac are calling for colder-than-average temperatures and plenty of snow.
Do you believe it? Well, despite the complete absence of science, you should doubt their forecast at your own peril. Because, after all, these wizened weather wizards usually get it right. In fact, about 80% of the time.
At least, that’s what they say.